Southern Africa at the Precipice of a Democratic Spring?

“This is the generation destined to liberate Africa from the shackles of oppressive and avaricious leaders…The new era is upon us, and we shall not falter.” – Jaara Niang

What is interesting, and perhaps should invigorate us with hope, now more than ever, is that the hegemonic influence of ‘revolutionary parties’ in the Southern African Region is dwindling, remarkably, and the people will rule – democratization is (probably) nigh! The people will rule. Even with the hope that I have, I remain reasonably skeptical, firstly because of the difficulty in precisely predicting the emergence of democracy and secondly, because of how deeply entrenched the ideologies of these revolutionary parties are, unimaginably maiming and inhibiting democratization. Nonetheless, the stage is set, the collaborative efforts (in rigging elections, crushing civil society and maintaining hegemony) among these parties are significantly weakening. No matter how much they try to convince us, that either by God or the role they played in the liberation of our countries or their ‘agenda’, they deserve to rule perpetually – their end will surely come and hopefully, soon!

On the 24th of October 2024, the Mozambican ruling party was declared winner of the Election that was characterized by fraud, intimidation and bloodshed. Daniel Chapo of FRELIMO is the president elect; the party has governed Mozambique since its independence in 1975. The Police in Mozambique killed at least 11 people and injured more than 50 people during the violent clashes following the disputed presidential election result on October 24 and 25, according to Human Rights Watch.

Before the election results were verified by the constitutional court, the President of Zimbabwe, who is also the chairman of the southern African development Committee, had congratulated FRELIMO and Daniel Chapo. On the 20th of June Mnangagwa hosted Daniel Chapo at the Statehouse and on the 21st of September 2024 FRELIMO was in Chegutu, a district in Zimbabwe’s Mashonaland West Province to “drum up support for its” presidential candidate” according to ZBC News online.

The African National Congress, South Africa’s revolutionary party, is currently in a coalition government with the Democratic Alliance following the reduction of its support in the 2024 Elections due to the formation of Jacob Zuma’s Mkhotho Wesizwe party. In the South African National Assembly 201 of the 400 seats are required for a majority, the ANC got 159, the DA 87, Jacob Zuma’s MK 58, Malema’s EFF 39 and lastly, the IFP 17 seats.  In the previous election, the ANC had 230 seats. The ANC dominance in the political sphere and matters of policy has come to an end.

It is important to note that the ANC, FRELIMO and ZANU PF are bedfellows in everything, including inhibiting democracy in the region. Their “sister revolutionary parties” alliance has for the longest time spelled doom for anti-regime/pro-democracy movements.

After ratifying the highly questionable Zimbabwean Election of August 2023, which was marked by voter intimidation, inconsistencies and malpractices; Fikile Mbalula the ANC’s Secretary General, affirmed the ANC’s ideological standing with ZANU PF. “We might have problems with ZANU-PF but in Zimbabwe, you must know what is progressive and our ally is ZANU-PF…Nelson Chamisa and his allies are not our allies. They don’t speak our language. They are not our allies…” Chamisa’s allies in this particular context are to be understood as opposition movements in the region and in particular, Hakainde Hichilema, the president of Zambia who won the election in 2021, defeating Edgar Lungu’s PF party. Hakainde Hichilema was the President of the SADC region at the time of Zimbabwe’s election last year. The SADC Electoral Observation Mission pointed out the inconsistencies and malpractices that undermined democracy in the 2023 elections in Zimbabwe, which roused the anger in ZANU-PF elites and their friends in the region, to the point of threatening the life former vice president of Zambia Nevers Mumba who was the chairman of the Observation Mission.

In further exciting revolutionary news, two days ago, after 58 years in power, the Botswana Democratic Party lost the 2024 Election, and President Mokgweetsi Masisi conceded defeat, allowing for a smooth transition of power. ZANU-PF is ashamed, they had sent a delegation to Botswana to campaign on behalf of the BDP, but it did not work. This has significant implications not only for Botswana, but for the region as a whole. How will the sister revolutionary parties consolidate their regional hegemony and pat each other’s backs for rigging elections and look to the other side when their friends commit atrocities? The writing on the wall did say, in the book of Daniel, Chapter 5 verse 25; "Mene, Mene, Tekel, Parsin." It will be interesting to see for how much longer autocrats will continue to call the shots.

The purpose of this blog, rather than exciting you with good news of imminent democratization, is to challenge the false dichotomy which the revolutionary parties have portrayed to distinguish between themselves and their ‘enemies.’ We should not understand the region as polarized, between the true African Patriots and the Western puppets/anti patriotic nature of the opposition movements, rather as a conflict between change in the direction of regional democratization against archaic, unsophisticated, banal and unintelligent politics of loyalty to liberation movements.

I am eternally grateful to all revolutionary parties for catalyzing and expediting the end of colonial rule through collaboration and commitment in the region – but fie upon them if they should believe they are entitled to rule in perpetuity! They support not democracy and the people, but only their maintenance of power.

Party by Party, Country by Country, City by City, township by township Southern Africa will be free!